According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox is passing UCLA’s Lonzo Ball on various big boards.
This year’s point guard class is supremely talented. All of the four best guards play vastly different styles. Markelle Fultz, the expected first overall pick, has a score-first mentality and can convert from almost anywhere on the floor. Next is Ball, who’s the best passer in the class. He’s able to raise his teammates’ game to an entirely different level, and he singlehandedly made the Bruins worth watching. Following him is Fox, a lefty who does a bit of everything offensively and is the top two-way point guard. Lastly, there’s Dennis Smith, the most athletic of the group whose play is similar to Fox, but some scouts worry about his motor more than anything else.
Having any of these guys fall outside the top-10 would be inexplicable, and Ford wouldn’t be shocked if they’re the first four players selected. Fox and Ball have been the most talked about prospects — albeit for different reasons. Lonzo’s father, LaVar, has been all over the airwaves promoting his son and his son’s brand, while Fox made headlines for torching Lonzo is the Sweet 16.
Also Read: How De’Aaron Fox Manipulated UCLA’s Defense
“There also seems to be a growing movement among teams to rank Kentucky’s Fox ahead of Ball,” wrote Ford. When it comes to picking between the two, it’s six of one, half a dozen of the other. Both guards would bring different things to the table, and all of their assets and liabilities were on full display this past season.
It’s only right that we go back to the NCAA Tournament game that pitted the two against each other. In just 40 minutes, we saw Lonzo get exposed on defense by Fox, who torched the Bruins to the tune of 39 points on 13-of-20 shooting and 13-of-15 from the free throw line. It’s no secret that Ball isn’t a good defender. He’s got great size for the point guard spot, but not much length. And he looked two steps too slow during that game. UCLA isn’t known for stopping their opponents, but their coverage of the pick-and-roll was nauseating, and, while that includes Ball, it also includes the other guards who covered Fox.
Fox was relentless is manipulating the defense, but the Bruins did their part by letting him do whatever each time down. For the game, he shot one three. If I counted correctly, Fox shot just one attempt outside of the pain. The biggest knock against Fox is his inability to hit the outside shot, and he connected on just 17 of his 69 threes (24.6 percent) this season. That wouldn’t be such a big deal if it weren’t 2017. His aggressiveness helps counteract that, but NBA defenses aren’t going to have many issues slowing him down if they can just go under every screen.
Lonzo has a huge advantage because of his perimeter game. His shot is wonky and looks broken beyond repair, but he’s been hitting from NBA range since his days at Chino Hills. For the season, Ball buried 41.2 percent of his threes and 55.1 of his looks overall. He’s not one to attack the basket, and more than 50 percent (56.6) of his attempted field goals came from downtown. With shooting being such a commodity, Ball draws tons of interest on top of his world-class vision. He was the conductor of a wildly quick Bruins squad, and he led the country in assists with 7.6 per game and was committing just 2.5 turnovers. An assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.04 is excellent by NBA standards and borderline outrageous for a college player.
Also Read: LaVar Ball Says White Players Kept UCLA From Title
In the two games against the Wildcats, though, Fox rattled him — at least, it appeared that way. His pressure made Lonzo look bad. Fox and the Wildcats took Ball and UCLA out of their game. It was more noticeable in the Tournament, but the first meeting was a very forgettable one for Lonzo. In 38 minutes, he committed six turnovers and shot 5-of-12 from the field, and that included 2-of-8 from three. The advanced metrics show that Fox is only a marginally better defender than Ball, but one is more willing to take on the challenge than the other, and that’s a significant intangible for teams to look at because, more times than not, these kids are going to be matching up against an All-Star caliber point guard.
Fox is going to embrace trying to stop Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook, and I’m not sure Lonzo is going to do the same. From what we’ve seen from him in high school and college, his teams are going to play incredibly fast and try to outscore you. And that’s a dangerous game to play in the NBA. Not many organizations have adopted and been successful. The Houston Rockets were just bounced from the playoffs by San Antonio. Golden State plays like that, but they have an elite defense to fall back on if the shots aren’t falling.
Playing defense hasn’t lost its lore as basketball’s evolved, but the dazzling offenses we see each night pushed it to the side. First impressions for guards like Mike Conley are based off points and assists, which isn’t a bad thing if you’re putting up numbers comparable to your peers. I’m expecting Fox to struggle at the start of next season. However, his shooting won’t be an issue if he makes a consistent impact on defense for the entire season. A player like Lonzo doesn’t have that kind of luxury.
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